Will AI kill us all?

Jon

Administrator
Staff member
#1
I loved the Terminator movies. When they first came out, it was all a bit of fun. Besides, would robots ever get to that level of intelligence? It seemed a pipe-dream far off into the future. However, the whole concept of a takeover from AI is becoming a key issue in the minds of many.

What is your take, will we all eventually be squished by super-smart robots?
 

Bee

Founding Member
#2
I think Asimov had it covered:

  • A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  • A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  • A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws
So long as AI is developed in accordance with those rules, then I'm finding it difficult to see a downside in terms of threat. However, AI will revolutionise the service and manufacturing industries and humans will have to adapt to that - or face mass unemployment. I think the real threat comes from having an unskilled workforce with no obvious means of supporting themselves. We know already that in times of high unemployment, crime rates rise. I think when we talk about the threat from AI, we think about the rise of the machines exterminating humans. I actually think humans are more at risk of exterminating themselves.
 

The_Doc_Man

Founding Member
#8
Interesting article, Bee, but a couple of those careers have been analyzed incorrectly. I DO agree that many jobs are changing and some of those comments are spot-on. But I choose to differ on some of them.

IT staff won't go away completely, though they will consolidate. Having been a member of the staff for the U.S. Navy's "cloud" center, trust me. We didn't go away. There IS an economy of scale, but there will be no massive elimination of jobs.

There will be less need for law clerks, but I don't think there will be less need for lawyers. The predictions about accounting specialists? Probably spot-on. Between Excel, H&R Block Income Tax software, and Access, I have not needed the services of an accountant for decades.

Data entry and typing clerks? Definitely a dying breed. Switchboard operators? They were dying out even before automation kicked in. My mom WAS a long-distance operator for south Louisiana before she moved into low/middle management. The advent of what we call "direct distance dialing" which started in the 1950s in the USA was the death knell for large groups of long-distance operators. Now you can make direct international calls station-to-station if needed.

I think the comments about jewelers are totally whacked. The analysis there should conclude that the jobs are moving, not that they are vanishing. As to door-to-door salespeople? Having seen one of those in years unless you count the kids selling candy or magazine subscriptions for school.
 

Jon

Administrator
Staff member
#9
The US outsources to India > The rise of the India middle-class > The US outsources to AI and robots > The collapse of the India middle-class.

Could this be a cycle of poverty to prosperity and back to poverty again?
 

Bee

Founding Member
#10
As I said, Doc, some suprising results - and that I don't necessarily agree.

I think most jobs are undergoing fundamental change. I just about remember typing pools, and I was one of the first in my company at the time to get email. We had an internal email system called Micromail, but to be able to talk to the outside world electronically was revolutionary.

Before email, I had to post my letters to other departments and companies. I always kept a second copy for reference purposes. I found them a week or so ago as I was clearing out the garage and decided to keep them, partly through nostalgia and partly as a record of how things used to be.
 
#14
After hurricane Katrina, I threw out SO much stuff that my wife and I come to words sometimes about what I will NOT throw away. But I feel I lost enough stuff and can't wrap my head around getting rid of more right now, even a decade+ after Katrina.
 

Bee

Founding Member
#16
There were three reasons I was clearing the garage:

1. I'm moving house and it needed to be done
2. I needed to get rid of all of the stuff my ex left behind
3. I was searching for a ring that my grandfather had left to me - and which I knew was in the garage

Re (3) It turned out that it wasn't in the garage, which means [Occam's Razor, Jon] that the most likely explanation is that my foul ex spirited it away - possibly around the same time as he liberated an amethyst bracelet that my grandmother had left to me. I did however, find a photo in the garage of me wearing both the ring and the bracelet. And now that's all I have of them.
 

Attachments

#18
House took two feet of water. That depth is significant because electrical code for home standards is that electrical sockets are two feet above the floor. So... ZAP! Had to re-do ALL downstairs electrical wiring. A lot of stuff got flooded. The electronic organ was shot because its main power amps were down low and mildew formed on all of the speakers. But my music collection was what really got to me. The bookcases were made of a good particle board that would have withstood a little water - but for various reasons the pumping stations were out of service for three weeks, so houses were in two feet (give or take) of standing water for that three weeks. Water wicked up the walls through the insulation so we had to take down all eight feet of dry wall.

We were in Ft. Worth Texas at the time because that is where the Navy's alternate site was for our facility. So I actually stayed dry. When we were allowed to return to the area, my wife stayed in New Orleans with her mother and I stayed in Ft. Worth to work. Took us until late October or early November of 2006 to finish the rebuild. But it was done, we are back, and I even found a used replacement organ.
 

Jon

Administrator
Staff member
#19
Wow, that sounds nasty. Can you get electrocuted if the water comes in and it hits the plug sockets?

You play the organ?
 
#20
In theory, if you are close enough to the sockets, you might feel a tingle. Depends on whether the ground wires are any good. Most modern USA house wiring has the ability to detect what are called "ground faults" (i.e. the ground wire suddenly isn't working right). The circuit breakers would detect a huge surge when the socket shorts out, so they would kick out quickly. So any "zap" would be brief. But I couldn't rule it out that you would feel it.

As to "play the organ" - yes. I have played one musical instrument or another since I was six. Started with the accordian, also learned trumpet. But my best instrument is the organ. In the 1960s, home electronic organs were popular. (We were still 30 years ahead of multi-media computers.) Mom visited a local music outlet with a friend of hers from the school parent/teachers group. She won the door prize of an organ in the home and four free lessons. OK, obvious promotional stunt, right? It worked, though. She took the lessons but it happened in August when I was off from school. I had a chance to play with it. In a matter of a month, I was playing well enough that she couldn't let it go, but she DID upgrade it. Fast-forward to high school and I got a portable, VERY primitive keyboard. Started playing music with a garage band. Jump forward a little to college and we were playing on Bourbon Street in New Orleans. This was after hurricane Betsy did a number on a lot of homes and the club's owner had salvaged an old Hammond B-3 and an extra speaker (the infamous "Leslie" cabinet). I played that for a few years. Paid my way through college, no loans required. (Well, one loan from Mom for a grand total of $40 to cover lab fees.)

My senior year, I was doing some things for the music company that originally provided the first organ. One of the representatives of the Lowrey Organ company (a division of Chicago Music Co.) talked to me about being a roving demonstrator. Essentially, go out, do concerts, assist local Lowrey dealers by showing customers what you could make an organ do if you knew what you were doing. I had a choice of being a road musician or continuing to graduate school. I was thinking about it when two events helped me choose.

First, I played in the stage band for a concert with Sonny and Cher. Their lead-in act was Charlie Rich, the "Silver Fox." He had just had a pop-chart cross-over hit called "Mohair Sam" and was making the rounds. At the cast after-party, I had the chance to talk to him and let me say this first: He was a real gentleman! But he told me what life was like as a road musician. For more than 2/3 of your year, your license plate is your address and if you stay in the same bed more than two days in a row, you either had a vehicle breakdown or you ran out of gigs to play. That was what happened unless you were "discovered" and/or had a hit record. He said it took him 12 years for his first marginal hit.

Second, I met a gentleman named Eddie Baxter, who also worked as a road demonstrator for Lowrey. He had also done TV soap opera backgrounds when they were live with an organist as the only musician. And he had done stadium baseball games at Candlestick Park in San Francisco. So far as I know, he had never met Charlie Rich, but the stories they told me were damned near identical.

I chose the "graduate school" path and have almost never looked back. Now, I play strictly for fun. You can find pictures and recordings of the instrument I have, a Technics F5, on the Internet. YouTube may still have some music recorded by someone else, and there might be a few historical articles because the F5 was considered one of the top-of-the-line instruments for home use at the time. The organ I had during Katrina was actually an F3, but I found its "big brother" on-line several years later. Interestingly enough, I found it listed from a couple who were retiring and down-sizing. They needed the room more than they needed the instrument, and the husband had a stroke so couldn't play any more. I got it and had it shipped here. Four weeks later, a massive hurricane went through the Outer Banks. The F5 would have been under water if I had not given it a new home. Darn thing is a real beast, though, and is fully MIDI compatible if I had the right kind of cable. (I do have MIDI software elsewhere.)
 
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