The problem with cause and effect is that you can talk about "macro" cause and effect, but as you head to the micro world, that becomes fuzzy. Not only that, but we know now about Chaos theory, which is in essence a mathematical study of forces in a tenuous balance. From Chaos theory, we learn about "sensitive dependence on initial (or previous) conditions." SDIC explains a lot of concepts.
Why does a tornado strike? We know why tornadoes form but their exact location just kind of depends on the impinging winds that are pushing against each other at the moment of funnel formation where the storm front occurs, where two air masses have collided. Storms, lightning, and tornadoes are all examples of chaotic behavior.
Why does an earthquake start? Two tectonic plates are pressing against each other all along their side surfaces. But the quake starts when the pressure becomes too much for one place and something slips. The quake behaves chaotically because you never quite know where the greatest force is being applied, or why.
My favorite idea is one that isn't proved, but it is my surmise. We do what we do as a result of constant issues of Chaos theory. Why do we erupt in a fit of temper? Why did Bee have her moment of weakness that she described in another thread? Why does Jon have an anxiety attack?The forces inside of us build up, leading to a potential for a given reaction, but our upbringing taught us how to "suck it up" and hold back the torrents. Forces in balance, but sometimes the violent side wins.
The key with Chaos theory isn't about the fact that an outbreak is going to occur. You have conflicting or opposing forces. You know something is going to happen. But when and where? And why then and there as opposed to some other time and place? Chaos theory helps understand the factors of the "why there" or "why then" questions.
This relates to "cause and effect" to show that sometimes "cause and effect" are hard to demonstrate, particularly if chaotic behavior is a factor. In a sense, the "Big Bang" is the ultimate example of "cause and effect" having been bypassed in favor of randomness as predicted by quantum mechanics. So at the micro level, cause and effect don't always work. As we get to larger scales, they begin to kick in as a statistical effect. We see the sum of a billion random events. (Expanding gas in a balloon, e.g.)